WH study warns 9 million Americans could lose health insurance in 'major' recession if Trump budget bill fails

The White House on Saturday distributed a examination estimating that to million more Americans could be without vitality insurance as a conclusion of an ensuing recession if President Donald Trump s big beautiful bill on the budget does not pass The finding comes from a White House Council of Economic Advisers memo titled Robustness Insurance Opportunity Cost if Proposed Budget Reconciliation Bill Does Not Pass The research assumes that the U S had approximately million uninsured people in If the budget bill does not pass that could increase to approximately million uninsured people far closer to the approximately million people who were uninsured before the implementation of the Affordable Care Act ACA also known as Obamacare in according to the memo 'FAILURE'S NOT AN OPTION' TRUMP BUDGET BILL WILL BE 'BIG' HELP FOR SENIORS TOP HOUSE TAX-WRITER SAYSThe memo says the estimate is based on the assumption that states which expanded Medicaid with relatively generous eligibility will pull back to meet balanced budget requirements and try to provide more unemployment patronage during a severe recession It also qualifies its conclusions by saying the analysis assumes no program countermeasures which the White House describes as a very unlikely but plausible worse circumstance scenario The White House projects that the expiration of the Trump tax cuts in and other shocks would trigger a moderate to severe recession The economic advisers assessment that a major recession would effect in reduced consumer spending as a development of higher individual taxes lower small business resources and hiring as a outcome higher pass-through individual taxes global confidence shock including concerns about U S competitiveness and dollar deflation tightening credit and pushing real interest rates higher GOP REBEL MUTINY THREATENS TO DERAIL TRUMP'S 'BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL' BEFORE KEY COMMITTEE HURDLEAccording to the advisers' upper bound estimate of the impact of not extending the Trump tax cuts U S GDP could contract by approximately over two years similar to the recession Unemployment could increase by four percentage points resulting in approximately million job losses Of those million job losses had employer-sponsored insurance so the White House projects approximately million people would lose coverage and become uninsured as a aftermath The memo also anticipates a loss of individual and marketplace coverage as those already without employer-sponsored insurance are no longer able to afford to purchase insurance themselves The White House expects a drop from approximately million enrolled in to approximately million losing coverage Without the passage of the big beautiful bill Medicaid and ACA subsidized plan enrollment could experience enrollment frictions resulting in approximately to million people losing or failing to gain coverage the memo states The expiration of the Trump tax cuts would disproportionately affect non-citizens gig workers and early retirees according to the White House The advisers assess that individuals in those working classes without employer-sponsored insurance would no longer be able to afford coverage as a development of a recession leading to to million insurance losses among vulnerable segments House Speaker Mike Johnson R-La is laboring to get the One Big Beautiful Act through the House by a self-imposed Memorial Day deadline despite divisions among Republicans who maintain control of the lower chamber by a razor-thin margin The -page bill includes more than trillion in tax cuts costs that are partially offset by spending cuts elsewhere and other changes in the tax code and would make permanent the tax cuts from Trump's first term It also realizes a great number of of Trump s campaign promises including temporarily ending taxes on overtime and tips for countless workers creating a new tax break on auto loan interest for American-made cars and even creating a new tax-free MAGA account that would contribute to children born in his second term The Associated Press contributed to this overview